Bitcoin Fork Dynamics Explorer

Interactive surrogate model trained on warnet simulations of Bitcoin softfork activation dynamics. Adjust parameters to explore predicted outcomes and view time-series dynamics from real simulation runs.

— simulation scenarios Model accuracy: — (5-fold CV) Full 60-node network · 2016-block retarget

Parameters

Predicted Outcome

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v27 Dominant

v26 Dominant

Contested

Nearest Scenario Metrics

v27 Final HR

—

Cascade Time

—

Econ Switch

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Peak Price Gap

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Decision Boundary

Y × X

v27 Dominant

v26 Dominant

Contested

Your position

Colour intensity reflects model confidence. All other parameters held at current slider values. Move the sliders to see how the boundary shifts.

Nearest Simulation Runs

Closest real simulation runs by normalised Euclidean distance across all 6 parameters. Time series auto-tracks #1 as you move sliders. Click any row to pin it —

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